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Hi everyone! Welcome to my second blog here on Eurovision's Number One!
First of all, I want to apologize for the 12-day break between this blog and my first one. Recently, I traveled by plane across the world, and I have taken some time to explore Italy. I'm currently still in Italy and will be here for at least a while, but I have finally taken some free time to write a few new blogs and update some of the slides I have created several months ago. One of those slides I have updated is about the results of the Spanish national finals for Eurovision compared to the results of the betting odds on EurovisionWorld.
In fact, the final of the fourth edition of Benidorm Fest took place last week, and Melody earned the right to represent Spain in this year's contest with the song "Esa diva." Did you know, though, that this is the first time that the EurovisionWorld betting odds have correctly predicted the winner of Benidorm Fest, and only the second time overall where the winner of the Spanish national final was correctly predicted? Let's analyze that!
EurovisionWorld started collecting the results of different betting odds websites in 2015, and in 2016, they have published the average results of the odds regarding a Spanish national final for the first time, when it determined that Barei was the favorite to win Objetivo Eurovisión according to the odds. No percentage of winning probability was calculated, but Barei indeed won the national final and represented Spain in the Eurovision Song Contest 2016 with the song "Say Yay!"
Years later, in 2022, RTVE launched Benidorm Fest, which is based on the Benidorm International Song Festival that took place until 2006. Benidorm Fest serves as the national final to select the Spanish representative in the Eurovision Song Contest, having selected all entries since 2022.
Near the conclusion of the first edition of Benidorm Fest, the betting odds have generally predicted that Rigoberta Bandini would win the national final, with a 42% probability of winning the competition being calculated by EurovisionWorld. Following Rigoberta Bandini is Chanel with a 31% probability of winning the competition. Despite this, it was actually Chanel who won Benidorm Fest and went on to represent Spain in the Eurovision Song Contest with the song "SloMo," achieving third place in the contest with 459 points (one of the best results for Spain with the highest number of points that the country has ever got in the contest).
After a successful year in Eurovision, Spain continued to use Benidorm Fest to select the Spanish representative of the Eurovision Song Contest 2023. The betting odds predicted for Agoney to win the national final with a 45% probability of doing so. In second place, instead, is Blanca Paloma, with a 42% probability of winning Benidorm Fest being calculated by EurovisionWorld. The gap between the two percentages is much smaller than what was seen in the 2022 betting odds, but for the second year in a row, it was actually the runner-up in the betting odds that ended up representing Spain in the Eurovision Song Contest, as Blanca Paloma won Benidorm Fest and participated in Eurovision with the song "Eaea."
In 2024, Benidorm Fest returned for its third edition, and this time the betting odds predicted that St. Pedro would win the competition with a 50% probability of doing so. Following St. Pedro were Nebulossa, with a 19% probability of winning Benidorm Fest according to EurovisionWorld. Despite the large gap in those percentages, Nebulossa eventually won the national final and represented Spain in the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 with the song "Zorra." This means that for the third time in a row, the runner-up of the betting odds ended up winning the Spanish national final.
What about 2025, then? Well, for the first time, this year was the first year where the betting odds correctly predicted the winner of Benidorm Fest, and the second time that the betting odds presented on EurovisionWorld were correct about who would represent Spain in Eurovision. In fact, at the time the betting odds for the fourth edition of Benidorm Fest closed, Melody led the odds with a 39% probability of winning the competition according to EurovisionWorld. Eventually, after receiving 150 points in total and winning the public vote, Melody indeed won Benidorm Fest and will soon represent Spain in the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 with the song "Esa diva."
After one correct prediction in 2016 and three incorrect predictions since the launch of Benidorm Fest, the betting odds finally found their luck this year as they correctly predicted who would represent Spain in Basel, where this year's contest will take place. Will this pave the way for a streak of correct predictions regarding who would represent Spain in Eurovision? We will find out next year!
Congratulations to Melody for her victory in Benidorm Fest this year! Good luck to Melody in Eurovision!
And to everybody reading this blog, I hope you all enjoyed this blog! See you next time!
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