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Hi everyone! Welcome to the first ever blog on Eurovision's Number One!
In this first blog, I will analyze the results of the betting odds on EurovisionWorld regarding the qualifiers in each semi-final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024.
Starting with the first semi-final, the betting odds correctly predicted most of the qualifiers, specifically 8 of them. The highest percentages of qualification were given to Croatia and Ukraine, which indeed placed in the top 2 in semi-final one; not only that, but they also joined the winner, Switzerland, in the top 3 in the final. With a 94% chance each, it was also correctly guessed that Lithuania, Ireland, and Finland would qualify for the final. The former two actually placed in the top 4 of the semi-final (Ireland 3rd and Lithuania 4th), while Finland placed 7th. Completing the top 7 in the odds and in the actual results of this semi-final are Luxembourg and Cyprus; it was correctly predicted that both countries would qualify for the final with a 91% and 85% chance respectively. Finally, the last correct prediction regarding qualifications from the first semi-final is the qualification of Portugal. The country placed 9th in the betting odds with a 77% chance of qualifying to the grand final, and it eventually placed 8th in the semi-final, thus advancing to the final.
Two incorrect predictions were made on EurovisionWorld regarding the qualifications from the first semi-final. One of those instances predicted that Poland would qualify for the final with an 82% chance, ahead of Portugal in the betting odds. Despite that, Poland missed the final by two placements, as it placed 12th in the actual contest. Also predicted to qualify for the final was Australia, with a 52% chance of qualifying; however, the country was one placement lower from qualifying for the final as it placed 11th.
Qualifying for the final, instead, were Serbia and Slovenia. Serbia missed the top 10 in the betting odds (and placed 11th there) by just a two-percent difference from Australia, receiving 50%, but in the actual contest, the country placed 10th place and earned itself a spot in the final. Similarly, the betting odds predicted a 37% chance of qualifying for Slovenia, which placed 12th in the odds; however, the country was able to receive enough points to place 9th in the semi-final and join the rest of the qualifiers in the grand final.
Here is a visual table regarding the qualifications of the first semi-final:
When it comes to the second semi-final, the betting odds on EurovisionWorld were more successful in guessing the qualifiers correctly, with only one qualifier being guessed incorrectly. On top of the betting odds, the Netherlands and Armenia each had a 94% chance of qualifying, and they both made it in the actual top 3 in the second semi-final by placing 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Below those countries in the betting odds is the eventual winner Switzerland with a 92% chance of qualifying; in the actual semi-final, the country placed 4th and also earned a spot in the grand final. In fourth place in the odds, Israel had a 90% chance of qualifying and actually qualified for the final by placing 1st in the semi-final. Completing the top 5 in both the betting odds and in the actual semi-final is Greece, which qualified for the final after an 89% chance of doing so was predicted.
In 6th and 7th place in the odds, it is possible to find Georgia and Norway with an 88% and 86% chance of qualifying for the final, respectively. They eventually placed a bit lower in the actual ranking of the second semi-final, placing 8th and 10th respectively, but nonetheless they also earned spots in the grand final. Similarly, Estonia placed 8th in the betting odds with a 75% chance of qualifying; the country actually placed a bit higher in the actual ranking (placing 6th), and it also earned the opportunity to qualify for the final. The final correct prediction regards Austria. The country placed 9th in the betting odds with 73%, and it also placed 9th in the actual contest, thus earning a spot in the final.
9 correct predictions were made, and only one incorrect prediction can be found in the betting odds for the second semi-final. In fact, at 10th place, the betting odds predicted that Belgium would qualify for the final with a 70% to do so. In the same betting odds, Latvia placed the lowest with only a 15% chance of qualifying (the second-lowest percentage between both semi-finals, with the lowest being an 8% chance that Iceland would qualify from the first semi-final); however, it was actually Latvia that returned to the grand final for the first time since 2016, placing 7th in the second semi-final.
Here is a visual table regarding the qualifications of the second semi-final:
In general, the betting odds correctly predicted most of the qualifiers, with only 3 occasions found in which the predictions were incorrect, two in the first semi-final and one in the second semi-final. In fact, the betting odds predicted for Poland, Australia, and Belgium to qualify for the final, but it was actually Serbia, Slovenia, and Latvia who would qualify instead.
I hope you enjoyed this blog! See you next time!
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