Some More Thoughts/Commentary About the US Election

I'm making the first half of this as a follow-up post to my last, I will cut it off at the bottom. The second half is going to be more of a commentary.

With Election Day concluding, it is important to remember that the world is not going to end. America is not going to fall apart, and things always appear worse in the moment.

Also, fearmongering has been so prevalent in the last 10-15 years that it is becoming the new normal as strategies for campaigns. If you think you haven't fallen for it or aren't susceptible, you are dead wrong. I am susceptible as well, and have been tricked before. I don't mean to write this as talking down to anyone, rather as words of comfort for the distressed.

We live in a time where information warfare is the most intense as it's ever been, thanks to a polarized political climate and the widespread use of the internet. We have to be aware of this and pick apart everything we hear about in order to make it through without becoming a victim. Most don't do it, and we get situations like January 6th, 2021 as a result.

Everything is very likely going to be ok.

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Here's my comments on the result. This is going to be heavily opinionated.

It's amazing how well Trump did considering what the polls looked like. Trump won every coin-toss in the battleground states, and then took Michigan, too! Trump completely shattered the Blue Wall and actually won the popular vote.

Michigan was forecast by The Hill to be 56-44 Harris, the actual result was 49-48 Trump. Quite incredible.

Arizona actually ended up being almost the opposite situation, forecast at 63-37 Trump, when it's currently only 52-47 Trump (AZ has not finished counting at time of writing).

It appears the Democrat strategy of painting Trump as a fascist was not convincing enough for enough of the public. In my opinion, they have leaned too hard into vilifying the Republican party instead of giving Americans other reasons to vote blue.

The public's perception of the nation's economic health since the 2020 Election also likely had a hand. Although many telltale signs of economic turnaround have started to appear under the later half of the Biden administration, the American public seems to not be feeling it as prices are higher than before after the economy leveled with pay not matching it. I'm not sure what the Trump administration is going to do differently, but America wants to give him that chance it seems.

Leaning into Biden seems to also be a crucial mistake, Harris only had 3 months to scrap together a campaign after Biden's exit, while Trump has had nearly a decade of buildup. Harris has had no time to distinguish herself from the previous administration that enough of America has demonstrated they don't want any more of.

It will be interesting to see what the Democratic party will look like in 4 years. I argue that the party has strayed away from the American worker enough to pursue social politics, so the worker is beginning to seek alternatives in the Republican party. Will the Democrats return to their traditional values of the worker, will there be further hemorrhaging of voters in 2028, or will there even be a split between the blue-collar blocs of the party and the social-progressive blocs? Only time will tell. If you want my personal opinion, I think the Democrats will pivot back toward tradition, but not to a point where it loses all of its progressive policy - just enough to appeal to the moderate independent voter.

On the other hand, it will also be interesting to see what happens to the Republican party. Trump's reelection to me shows the Republican party has become a populist party outright. Trump is the Republican party right now. This can be a bad thing in the future for them, since if the Trump administration fails to actually do much (or convince people that they've done much), all of their momentum will disappear. They have the means to do it it looks like, they are highly likely to win the House and they've already won the Senate. The Supreme Court also has made favorable calls for them.

Will Trump utilize what the vote has given him? We'll have to find out. If he does well (or, again, is perceived to be doing well), we may be looking at a populist era that mimics the neoconservative era of Reagan. If not, the Republicans I think are doomed to fall flat on their face in 2028 and end up inside the tiger they have been riding.

One thing on a personal level that I am worried about is America's international image after this administration has run its course. I am worried Trump is going to compromise with Putin too much and put Ukraine in a unjust spot and leave Europe to distrust us. I'm also worried that he may not be as critical towards the questionable actions of Israel. (Something I really think we need right now, as Israel is doing some really insane stuff like attacking UN peacekeepers.. Also, we really need to know what's going on in Gaza, there is so much information warfare and misinformation going on about that conflict that I genuinely don't know what to think.)

Domestic policy from Trump is something I like a lot more, since I am socially conservative and religious. But I also do not want people's rights trampled on, even if I disagree with their actions. I don't think Trump is going to do so, but the chance is nonzero. I will feel horrible if the odds go that way.

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