opinions on the 2024 election as of may 2023

yes political stuff also ik i am putting this out on april 30 here in the US but it's may tomorrow so /shrug. 

DEM primary

2024 primaries are interesting, last week Biden finally announced he's jumping into the race, and usually challengers aren't too much of a threat (hell in the 2020 GOP primary Trump swept 93.99% of the primary vote) looking at the realclearpolitics aggregate polls with declared candidates, Kennedy has 20%, no polls in the 2020 GOP primary even showed one of Trump's challengers hitting double digits, even though Biden will most likely sweep the primary, Kennedy could be a minor threat, Williamson is not really a threat

My prediction: Biden wins, Kennedy will win some delegates

GOP primary

this one is interesting, as Trump is trying to win the nomination again, but does face some decent challenger, but as of recently, Trump has been gaining decent ground against opponents, the anti-Trump GOP is gonna be split on a few candidates, but will most likely grow support around Pence and Sununu, DeSantis looks like he is going to sell himself as "Diet Trump", Haley could be a threat if she places 3rd in IA, but will face challenges in NH if Sununu jumps in due to "Favorite Son" candidates, but the "Favorite Son/Daughter" thing could do well for Haley, but that could benefit another South Carolinian who is going to join, Tim Scott, but Haley is in a good spot with her placing 3rd or 4th behind DeSantis (when in 3rd) or Pence (when in 4th).

My prediction: Trump wins the GOP primary, but will be challenging

the general election prediction

ofc this all depends on who the GOP candidate is, but we're just gonna use Trump v. Biden, the 2022 midterms gave us a good idea of how a potential 2020 rematch will go, abortion will still be big, will be competitive, but the national polls don't really show who will win, the state polls are important (thanks electoral collage!)

My prediction: Biden wins a 2nd term.

gonna do another one of these maybe later in the month, at least around the start of june