Regarding the American Military Operation Against Venezuela

The recommendation for airplanes to avoid Venezuelan airspace, coupled with the rumors of an ultimatum, are indications that the masters of the world already have a plan to tackle the Venezuelan issue and that they intend to act on it.

What can be realistically expected to happen?

So far, military deployments include a sizeable number of ships and planes but relatively limited personnel. Also, it's fairly evident that the logistical support necessary for a major amphibious operation against Venezuela exceeds current capabilities and that a lot of stuff would have to be done very quickly if the US were to sustain a prolonged offensive against the South American nation. The obvious answer would be to say that any intensification of the current aggression operation will start with the ordering of airstrikes against key Venezuelan facilities and assets, but even that will prove to be not as easy as the authorities in Washington would like it to be. Venezuela can count on the forewarning of the secret services of several nations, including that of Cuba, which is either the 2nd or the 3rd best in the Americas. An early warning can allow Maduro to quickly flee Caracas and to position key military assets in places where they'll be less vulnerable to attack.

The effectiveness of a "surgical" strike failing, that is, not being able to subdue the government by bombing key targets and infrastructure (which is pretty much the only realistic outcome), the next move will be to draw a plan, if one doesn't already exist, for a Bay of Pigs-type invasion of Caracas. Once again, the military authorities of Venezuela will be forewarned of this and will be able to ready up their defenses and withstand the attack. The decisive fact for any prognosis of this situation is this: should America decide to go to war with the South American nation, it will face its stronger and most formidable opponent since the end of World War II. Do not let silly memes and propaganda found on the web cloud your judgment: Venezuela is not as weak as it seems and they have a few tricks up their sleeve, not to mention enough popular support to prevent internal collapse indefinitely. Given how the Venezuelan military service operates, I'd estimate they could muster up an army of at least 2 million men with relative ease in the event of a prolonged war. For comparison, Iraq had an army of around 1 million men of inferior training and operating at a lower level of technological development. Venezuela's geography makes the country a particularly hard place to occupy, so much so that the idea of the US occupying a piece of the country and then establishing a puppet regime of some sort is completelly unrealistic. The best they could do is occupy Caracas, install a puppet regime there and then hope for some type of insurrection that would make Maduro's regime collapse on its own, but that, in my opinion, is highly unlikely.

Any further occupation would only be possible along the coastline. In the interior, the thick jungle will allow for extensive guerilla activities and the Venezuelan army, very well trained in jungle warfare and guerilla tactics, will be able to hold ground indefinitely. The situation will be very difficult for the invaders and will likely result in a major geopolitical defeat.